I registered for a Redfin update for my local area a couple of years ago to see what was happening around here and watched that whole feeding frenzy go crazy in real time.
No joke, the AVERAGE price of a house in my area jumped One Hundred Thousand Dollars in one year.
Insanity ruled.
People making offers thousands of dollars over asking price .My Parents place sold for a ridiculous amount of money after being on the market for two weeks, a cash offer , WITH NO INSPECTION REQUIRED!
Absolutely crazy.
It was typical of what was going on all over the country.
Well, times have changed.
Like I said, I get these email updates from this outfit.
Over the last two weeks I have deleted HUNDREDS of notices of houses announcing ASKING PRICE DROPS.
There were also several notices of Asking Price Increases, people still chasing the ones P.T Barnam allegedly spoke about all those years ago.
The price drops outpacing the increases twenty to one.
Can you say Market Correction?
Reality has finally started creeping back in and now there are going to be millions of people who are going to be finding themselves UPSIDE DOWN in their over priced dwellings.
In the mean time, The Fed has jacked up the interest rates so mortgage rates naturally followed right along and now DEMAND has fallen off a cliff.
Contractors are seeing record numbers of people backing out of home building deals and are stuck building houses just to finish them so they can sit unsold and unoccupied.
I have been waiting at least ten years for this market correction to happen. I have also been watching dumbfounded as the price of housing has skyrocketed year after year after year.
With mortgage rates now so high, nobody is closing deals unless they absolutely have to.
Now I am waiting to see where the bottom is.
Because this should be a looooooooong drop.
In 2021, mother sold her home of 50+ years. Less than 12 months later, it sold for $312,000 higher. That represent a 28% increase per annum.
What goes up must come down.
On the cusp of 2006, I sold my home for $685K. Within six months, the comp listings were no more than $425K and in freefall.
What goes up must come down.
Looking at properties (SFR on small acreage) on NC eastern shore, the trend in asking is downward, even reduction of 25% or more compared to 4th Q last year.
I forgot to add that comps for mother’s old home are currently 9% less than her selling price.
Chronologically, her selling price, comps over the past 12 months, current comps, it graphs as the highs are higher and the liws are lower. Vast instability. I’m staying iut of the game.
I get the feeling it will be really bad for a whole lot of people. like 1930’s kind of thing- most are going to be fucked. and when you add in the falling value of the dollar, inflation running out of control. this is going to be really hard times for
most of the country. but there hope (?) as most of the other countries around the world will have the same problem as we will.
I forget who it was that said the best time to buy anything was when blood was running in the streets. had to be some banker asshole.
with the raising price of power/fuel/ whatever, most if not all factories will slow down or shut down. no jobs=no money- no way to feed your family
if the EU is still intact by spring next year, I be amazed.
the way things are going over there, we are going to see riots like never before
food or the lack of it will drive people to do desperate things. crime will go up even more so than now. and it will also happen here too. we will be seeing a time of change not unlike the 1930’s. remember the Nazi’s got into power by saying they where going to give people bread and salt. it may sound stupid now.
but when you and your family are starving ?
something to think about. and you best be start planning on a garden too.
I think smaller towns will be a safer bet then most cities. maybe 20 or so miles
away from any town over 100,000 to be safe. walking 20 miles is a bit much for most people these days. now if you find a nice place with a 3 car garage, rig up a wood gasifier to a good genset to have power, you might get by fixing things for people. think barter on a grand scale. maybe swap a gasifier for a cow ?
charge up batteries for eggs ?
even Blackrock is dumping houses it bought a year ago. no profit in renting them out if the renters do not pay you now is there ?
Dave- I live in a really small town, as well. Farm/ranch oriented. If the demons in charge deploy all digital currency, it will be a fine sign to grab your ass with both hands. Barter outlawed. Small gardens shot with glyphosate. Wells destroyed or poisoned. Used to think we’ll be the “last on the list”. No more. Common knowledge is cities will destroy themselves without a lot of demon input. Good luck to you.
the assholes might try, but it not going to fly around here.
I finding a lot of people do things by barter up here.
even a couple of the repair shops are open to it as well.
and I also feel more than a few people will have a problem
with the clowns if they try to destroy things.
there are a lot of vets and hunters up here. and I have seen
some serious firepower at the local ranges too.
one range has the target stands made with 3/4 inch thick angle iron. it has a lot of holes and channels where bullets
hit. now, what makes a hole in steel/iron that thick ?
Most all full powered 30 cals will punch through surprisingly thick mild steel, even with hunting ammo. FMJ does better. Tree Mike
“Never feed into the euphoria ” quote from money manager/entrepreneur.
He got out of the market about 16 months ago.
Seems as if there is a 10-15 year cycle in the housing commodity. Looks like there will be 2-4 more years of down before the bottom.
Had a realtor friend tell us our house was worth $425-450K, wonder what it’s down to now. Only paid $175K eleven years ago…
You ain’t just whistlin’ Dixie there, BK! Just sold my house in Seattle to move to the Lower Yakima Valley. Even 6 or 8 months ago it would have had multiple offers for over the asking price within a week. No more! It got lots of traffic, lots of “Love it!” comments, and one, 1, as in 2 – 1 offers, for less than asking. Still, a good haul after all is said and done, after 26 years in the place.
Does this mean my lot rent is going to go down???
Yah, I didn’t think so.
When’s land gonna come down. Here in Oklahoma pasture is 3000$ plus an acre. Can’t make it pay for that money
Same here in Northern Colorado. I’ve been watching this market for about 10 years now, and things really shot up a year or so after we bought. Just as Phil noted, the price cuts on listed properties outnumber new listings, and one of the websites I read mentioned he expects AT LEAST a 25% correction, and he thinks it’ll be more like 30~35% when the dust settles.
I have a friend who moved out of Connecticut 7 years ago, his house sat vacant except for the mowing guy hired by the bank…fast forward to early 2020 the covid scare. The house went on the market for 172,500, it is on a 1/4 acre, nice old house has a well built cut stone and mortar foundation. House is small but nice, some New Yorker bought it for 202,000 site unseen. The market is taking a dump here on the east coast..there were a bunch of houses that were sold that were empty for a while. As usual, it benefits the bankers and the tax collectors. On my street a family from NY purchased a house 2 years ago…it is presently for sale again..they think they get their asking price..I say think again
Big housing players such as Blackrock reportedly were buying entire new housing tracts. My guess was “the government” would be subsidizing housing, further diluting the “hard-earned” aspect of home ownership.
Been watching the same insanity over this way, south of Rickvid, it is one aspect of the prism that will be ugly when the reality actually hits people in the face.
Same market rate drops in Australia, at least on the eastern coast. People may end up in a negative equity situation, owing far more on their housing loan, then they could raise by selling their home outright.
The only ones that benefit either way are the big banks. They can absorb a reduction in demand for loans, especially if they can foreclose on a loan that the home “owner” has been servicing for years, just to be left to walk away with nothing but empty pockets and a sword hanging over their head.
When this plays out with farmers, the only ones to profit by it are the huge multinational food corporations, picking up prime arable land for a song, and the fucking banks of course . In some cases the landholdings may have been in the same family for generations, such often ends in suicide by the farmers.
Too bad that they don’t realise that they’re pointing the muzzle at the wrong person, the target that should be the recipient of the bullet living in Sydney or Melbourne, or New York, for that matter. It’s too often that the pawn, no matter their address/domicile and their job or trade, doesn’t see the the real lay of the chessboard.
I believe that the global economy downturn is but one aspect, daunting though it’s impact will be for many people, possibly entire populations, it’s but one battle in the war that was declared on humanity over 108 years ago.
The psy-op pandemic (possibly mistimed, thanks to the hapless Chicoms) was launched not just as a plan to have a greater mass of the people tricked into poisoning themselves with the Vaxx, but the global recession/depression is an integral part of the greater strategy at play against you and your family and loved ones. The very same families that created and ran the Great War of ‘14 – ‘18 as a means to fatten their coffers, and World War Two of ‘39 – ‘45 and it’s precursors in East Africa and Central Europe, the Third World War of ‘50 – ‘53 in the two Koreas, and with few exceptions, every tin-pot internecine war, every “freedom fight” since, and the entire Cold War, are the very same families/bloodlines currently benefiting from the current strife in Eastern Europe.
Indeed, the original families have drawn battle to there before, many of their Ashkenazim brothers tricked into spilling their own blood as those of their mutual enemies of the time. For centuries before the Great War, these Khazarian clans bankrolled every royal expansionist colonial forays in the world, and every single war in Europe, because they knew whomever won, they were the only real winners.
Often enough, the very side that won were then beholden to these Khazars by the usury imposed on the years long outlay that war of any era takes.
I wonder, since colonial times, how much money has been spent by America as a nation in warfare? Twice so far, it’s been against each other, as surely your Revolutionary War was at heart a civil war. How many lives have been lost, on all sides, during those wars, declared wars or not? All of it was really to benefit those same families, no matter what your history books say about it. Remember, it’s the victor that gets to write history, and these people are the ultimate victors over all of us, so far. American blacks sometimes consider white peoples to have benefited from slavery over them, despite the inaccuracies of such belief. We are all slaves to the Khazar rulers, despite your misguided belief in the voting system.
So far as politics go as a cause of wars, these people invented Socialism, Communism and Fascism, they wrote the rule books that the other bright-eyed true believers are expected to follow, to a fault. They, and they alone, always win, the pawns shed blood, figuratively or real, theirs or others, as they must.
Got lucky twice. Sold in 2007 at near peak and sold a few days ago going to a rental for a year so cool down will reduce prices. Yes I know rents are high but devaluation will offset that. 40’ish couple with at least 2 little kids. Put only 15 grand down, I can’t imagine what that payment will be and where the hell do they get the money to pay.
and why won’t blogger save my login dammit
That inflation monster is going to offset a big drop. Maybe some areas tank but I’m not holding my breath. I think we’re in for a long ride up.
Does anyone else remember when Barack Obama claimed “home ownership is a human right”, and was pressing for bailouts or forgiveness for the morons who’d bought houses they couldn’t afford to make their payments on? Thousands of people just walked away and abandoned their properties, which turned into a new problem since it seemed many of the lending institutions didn’t actually own the legal titles to them.