I pulled part of the following from a comment Wes left on my What Was Old Will Be New Again post from the other day.
He said that he had cut his comment way down so I emailed him and asked him to elaborate a little more. He did and I think it is absolutely spot on but even then he said he cut it short because he doesn’t have the time nor energy to try and educate people anymore.
He is too busy walking the talk.
For those who may not be aware, Wes is a fantastic gentleman who I have had the great pleasure to meet with very briefly a couple of times.
He hunts, he farms and he along with his family are basically as self sustaining as anyone I could personally point to as an example of what it takes to live and thrive on their own anymore.
He is also a fantastic wordsmith in his own right and has penned a couple of stories about his experiences growing up that Kenny posted over at his old site a couple of times that I just absolutely loved.
Unfortunately I can no longer find those as Kenny has let the domain lapse on that old site due to having so many problems with it.
I will try and contact him later to see if he still has those stashed away.
Anyway, the comments Wes left are brutal assessments of what the true state of Mankind really looks like from someone who knows what it takes to live and thrive the hard way.
Down deep, if you are really honest with yourself, I think you will see his point.
Long post – Delete:
short edit:I had damned near a book written out in response to this but anymore my heart just isn’t in it. For all but a few the human race is doomed.
Sadly if we ever suffer a situation where cheap, abundant energy goes away most folks will be dead or thinking about eating their neighbors within two weeks.
The simple fact is learning about carpentry, electricity and electronics, mechanics, hydraulics, hydrology, animal husbandry, farming and food growing, resource extraction, sewing, hunting, fishing, foraging, food processing and preservation, alternative energy sources, health and medicine, dentistry, firearms, shooting and reloading, and on and on and on — hell even manual skills such as how to use a shovel efficiently is beyond all too many let alone figuring out how to make do with what they have, forget about it.
Like I said most people are just going to be shit out of luck.
That was his self edited comment that he left, this is the longer version and it is a bullseye.
“I’ll have to learn. No, you’re going to die”
Originally written as a comment to the post What Was Old Will Be New Again
If we ever lose cheap, abundant energy, petroleum based or electrical take your pick, most people are going to die.
I went to a home to help with a guy with a repair. At the home his two young adult step children were visiting. They live over the mountains in a blue hive.
The conversation went something like this:
Stepdad “Here you explain it to them”
me “explain what?”
stepdad “about survival”
me “I’m just here to fix a piece of equipment”
stepdaughter “he’s nuts, he’s become a prepper”
lots of cross talk about prepping, conspiracy theories and disaster scenarios
finally me “look ignoring the causal event what if something really bad happens?”
the girl “we’ll just drive over here”
me “no you won’t. Unless you get out in the first hour the highways will be a parking lot.”
the girl “well I guess we’ll have to walk.”
me “what if it’s the winter and there’s three to six feet of snow on the ground?”
the girl “I’ll find a way”
me “ok, what are you going to do for food because on foot it will be a several day hike at best?”
the girl “I’ll have to shoot a deer”
me “have you ever shot a deer?”
her “no”
me “do you have a gun?”
her “no, I’ll have to find one”
me “have you ever shot a gun”
her “no I’ll have to learn”
me “ok, so let’s say you find a gun, figure out how to load it, find a slow deer that will stand there and commit suicide, what are you going to do then? Have you ever dressed out any animal?”
her “what does dressed out mean?”
me “eviscerate”
her “what does eviscerate mean?”
me “gut the deer”
her “that’s gross, do you have to be so blunt?”
me “well, I can tell you haven’t gutted a deer before so what are you going to do?”
her “I’ll have to learn”
me “once it’s gutted what are you going to do to process the carcass?”
her “I’ll have to learn”
me “no, you’re going to die”
that was the end of the conversation.
The sad truth is for most people there is too much to learn, about too many things, in too short a time for them to survive. In my estimation at the macro level there are five things needed for physical survival – breathable air, potable water, food, shelter and defense. Each of these topics has multiple sub points.
Consider the breadth of food alone. Raising livestock, growing a truck garden, foraging, fishing, hunting and all the attendant details that go with each of these. What and how many species of livestock? How about their feed requirements? Hay you say. Where is it coming from? How are you going to put it up? Materials for fencing, vet supplies? How many varieties of garden plants? Where does the seed come from for next year and the year after and the years after that? How about irrigation? Fertilizer? What wild game with what weapons? Ammunition? What fishing methodology? Once food has been acquired and there is no electricity to power the freezer how is it processed and stored?
Extrapolate these types of questions about everything, and I mean everything else. I’ve seen people that didn’t know which way to turn a screw to tighten it. People that don’t know what a combination wrench or ratchet is. How about understanding the basics of internal combustion engine theory and the differences between gasoline and diesel engines. Have any of them ever hot wired a car, truck or farm tractor. It’s fairly easy on the old tractors, not so much on the newer ones all computer controlled.
Turning to the home front what are these people going to do when they turn on the tap and no water comes out. I’ll guarantee most of them have never given serious consideration to providing safe drinking water for themselves and those dependent on them. How about preparing that food you’ve somehow grown or raised?
And the gangs, it won’t matter what you think you have, if you can’t protect it you are at the mercy of the next group that is stronger or bigger than your group. Who stands watch, for how long and how do you know they haven’t been killed because they got bored and took a nap because nothing ever happens.
I could go on for pages of different topics and the discussion will be the same, too much to learn in too short of time. Us deplorables will have an edge of course because we’ve been dealing with this type of shit since childhood. All the others, it goes back to my earlier comment, when all goes south, I’m sorry, you’re going to die.
wes
wtdb
It isn’t pretty to think about but Wes speaks much truth here.
The human race is so disconnected from the land and the harsh realities of what it takes to survive without cheap and easily available energy that without it, most would perish.
Sue there are pockets here and there but the vast majority of people have absolutely no idea what it truly takes to provide the basic necessities of life for themselves anymore and to be honest I would have to include myself in that category .
It’s not so much that I don’t have the knowledge, it’s that my body is pretty much shot at this point. I simply do not have the physical ability to work as hard as it would take to be able to supply all the needs of myself and especially those of my family if I had to start from scratch.
I would very much like to thank Wes for providing his insights and I would dearly love to be able to visit with him for more than a short period again and again.
He and his entire family are amazing people.
I agree with him entirely. I have had so many encounters like that myself. I have found that most teenagers do not know how to light a match. Try it, hand one a book of paper matches and see if he/she can do it. You will be amazed. –ken
Grid down, 100mil dead in the first 6 months.
The burn off will be glorious.
Yes, but…
I get stuck dealing with all those corpses.
Quite the stinky oozy mess just piling them away from the water source.
In a seemly reversal of this daughter showing up. I have had family members and “friends” tell me if the feces plops against the fan and they need to survive, they want me to show up. Normally I am only tolerated by those for a few hours or if they have something that needs to be fixed or built. Their thinking is Kevin knows how to hunt and process the animal, knows how to fish and set up trap lines and again process fish. Knows how to garden and how to set seed for the next year. Kevin can fix things and build things… so what does Kevin get out of it? More work than I can handle for people that wouldn’t go out of their way in normal times. Am I bitter, bet your sweet bippy I am. I can survive by myself or with people that instead of tolerating me will celebrate my contribution as I celebrate theirs. I know I can be course and blunt and I have certain ideas and beliefs about genders and the roles they are assigned and about races and the stereotypes they portray. Stereotypes and myths have much of their basis in fact and truth and empirical evidence. You were my family and friends, I will find new family and friends.
Douche-bags reverse the intent of the axiom — “Blood is thicker than water”.
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The ‘blood’ refers to a blood oath, a pledge to an individual or group.
A blood oath tends to be deeper and longer lasting than any other commitments.
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The ‘water’ refers to the water of the womb, folks related by a family thread.
Many family members delight in destroying each other… the opposite of the bonds of a blood oath.
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Examples of a blood oath can include:
* the bonds established during combat
* bonds developed during extended extensive physical endurance, such as bringing in crops at the conclusion of the growing season
* the bonds of shared values and commitment, such as a motorcycle club or LawEnforcementOfficials.
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During difficult times, a lack of mutual commitment between friends and neighbors cannot be overcome with Johnny-come-lately on-the-job lessons.
Indeed, that is a recipe for catastrophic cascading failure.
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The descriptor ‘cannon-fodder’ comes to mind.
I don’t know if you’re familiar with JH Kunstlers World by Hand series of books, but if we’re real lucky it’d be like that.
If we’re unlucky it’ll be more like Mad Max.
Chris Martensen at peak prosperity on ytube has some good stuff on collapse and where the financial system is heading.
I reached his conclusion at least a decade ago. Did you read Rawles’ first book, Patriots? At one point, I’m reading about the group’s hideout in Idaho and I just realized that if that’s what it really takes, I’m dead.
The reality is that on a long enough time scale, we’re all dead. Got preps for 3 months? What happens at 6? Got preps for 3 years? And what’s out at 3-1/2? 4?
I was late 50s at the time. Just turned 68. I’m in good shape for my age. Can I go for days doing heavy work? I’m not sure. I can do most of what he says in there; not all, but much. Is that enough? How much of survival depends on pure, dumb-ass luck?
re — ,Rawles
Early-1990s, I acquired an early version of his work, titled (something like?) The Gay Nineties.
8.5″x11, bound by brass spread-’em push-throughs.
My copy has post-ups at those points I believed particularly important.
2022, after three decades of full-time prep and training — closing in on my 70th birthday — I look back on a rewarding hobby.
This probably one of the simplest and clear-cut ways to explain to the unwashed masses that yeah, they are probably going to die from their willful ignorance. Most people know absolutely nothing for field-craft and couldn’t siphon some gasoline to save their own lives. Wild food grows year-round in Texas but again, the masses don’t know this and will die because of it. They don’t have a network or multiple networks to rely on in case their own breaks down.
My approach to running is sticking to what I know (03), so I included everything I need to wage war in my go-bag. Bible, bullets, more bullets, extra bullets, bullets for my backup, bandages, water purification, signaling devices, batteries, socks, underwear, etc. Total weight is around 45-50lbs which is normal assault pack weight.
Since I’m digging in, I’m planting hedge rows of black berries and prickly pears on the fences for food, revenue, and deterrence (position improvement). The first tomatoes are already sprouting, mustard in the garden, elderberries are doing well, etc. Permaculture requires less labor to maintain and labor may be tight in the future.
Neither are a perfect plan to guarantee success but they are good plans and better than no plan.
I hear it during disaster planning meetings at church — “LM, ha ha, I am coming to your place during a collapse, ha ha!”
Trouble with that plan, I will not be there.
Other trouble with that plan, it assumes an event rather than a process.
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Occasionally, I would hope they would develop a foundation by responding — “Bring everything you need to survive… foods, meds, clothes, security, and most important, gardening tools.”
The realization of the remainder of their life laboring at hard work on a farm plus protecting that farm… usually shuts them up while they contemplate their mortality… aka ‘impending demise’.
Yep, we be dead, alright.
There is so many ways to look at the future. I view it as one of those fibre optic gizmos with changing colors. I am too old to worry about it frankly. If it all goes pear shaped, I think it will be more of slow creep than an avalanche. If I was going to look for a BOL, it would be south of I-10 accessible only by boat and I would have a Cajun English dictionary.
While here and there a single individual or family group has historically survived mankind has always needed a tribal structure to survive and then flourish If you are not growing you are dying. All the prepping and skill mastering cannot secure a long term survival outcome. If you want to see tomorrow we all need to develop a circle of competent like minded survivalists who can establish a social system that will hold everything together. Tribalism produced nationalism and this is how man as progressed. Mankind cannot survive as lone wolves
We operate a small organic teaching farm near the outskirts of Eugene, Oregon.
We share the acreage with a couple-three dozen other workkampers in RecreateVehicles and various versions of home-built HouseTrucks.
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The bunch of us gravitated together about four years ago, partly as a slow-down step-back from the rush of participation in outside society, and partly as a self-reliant productive defendable shelter-in-place location…
… but that was then
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The last couple years, we are looking at boats, forming a flotilla, a tight self-supporting group, thriving on the bounty of the sea and shores.
And without much use for 99% of humans.
I have to disagree with the idea that if everyone were a prepper and fully understood the reality of a SHTF scenario that all would be fine and dandy. The world’s population today is wholly dependent on technology to sustain itself. It is our extraction of fossil fuels which lead to increased abundance of resources that supports a population of billions. Once that abundance of resources disappears the human population will collapse. I believe that decades of comfortable, easy living has brought about a form of dysgenics where even if you could convince people of impending doom many wouldn’t be able to survive anyway.
The most important survival tool you possess is the one between your ears. Cody Lundin likes to say that the more you know, the less “stuff” you need. I’ve been learning the subject of prepping since the 1950’s as a cub scout/boy scout. Some of that is rather dated, like “Always carry change in your pocket in case you need to make an emergency phone call.” Yeah, right. But the motto of “Be Prepared” carries a long way. If you’re prepared for the worst, any lesser scale disaster is easily doable, if not pleasant to deal with.
Somebody mentioned hot wiring a car. I did it at 17, learning the hard way: I lost the keys to my folks VW microbus in the sand dunes, and noodled it out in order to get home.
In a complete TEOTWAWKI, like a permanent grid down, between 70% and 90% of the country will be dead in three months. The fastest die off will be the marshmallow people, because when they get hungry and thirsty enough, they’ll eat and drink garbage they shouldn’t. Intractable diarrhea and vomiting leads very quickly to electrolyte imbalance and yer ticker just plain stops.
I’m a fair bit older than Phil and Cedarq, and I can no longer do 40 hours of hard labor a week, let alone what full time survival requires. But I’ve been working at making myself and my “stuff” as resilient as I can. Since no one can do it all (you gotta sleep sometime), long term survival requires networking and community. That’s a hard one for me, since I’m a natural recluse, but I work at networking my local area as best I can. My line is “I may be old, but I have skills and tools, and I can teach.” At least to those who want to learn. There’s not much I can do for those who don’t know which way to turn a screwdriver, or even which end to use, but I live in rural, remote, farm and ranch country, and there are a lot of folks here, young and old, who have their heads on right, and we’ll last a lot longer than most. The cities will burn first.
My position is that unless you live in a remote area, prepping for a long term societal collapse is a waste of time and energy. Because so few others have prepped, that means there will likely be many gangs roaming the neighborhoods robbing (likely at gunpoint) from those who did manage to store up some supplies. The gangs will likely begin in the cities, and will work their way out into the suburbs, and eventually to the semi-rural areas just out from the suburbs. Of course, they could also just as likely begin in the suburbs, and make it into the semi-rural areas even sooner than those that begin in the cities.
In my opinion, even those who are nearly self-sufficient, unless they are far from populated areas, would likely have a hard time surviving long term. The reason is that they would have to spend a significant amount of time trying to protect their gardens and livestock from others, and have less time to spend performing the work required to care for and maintain their gardens and livestock. Plus, the mentality of those who would be in the gangs are likely to be the “if I can’t have it, then nobody can”, and they would likely just as soon destroy any gardens or livestock if they were unable to take it for themselves.
Granted, my opinion is based upon a worst case Mad Max type scenario, but does anyone really doubt that is where we are headed? With so many people having the sense of entitlement that is so prevalent these days, I don’t think it would take more than a few days of true hardship for things to reach Mad Max levels.
Sounds entirely reasonable to me.
T,
You make a good point about defending the garden.
You make a good point about living far from cannibal slavers.
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Can you imagine a boat, tiny and invisible and self-contained, able to instantly retreat far off-shore, out of reach of cannibal slavers.
Can you imagine a well-developed community of similar boaters, each self-contained, each able to participate in the mutual defense of the group.
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Instead of a fixed-location garden requiring tending and 24/7/360° defense from deer and gophers and goofballs, can you imagine living atop an immense rich self-sustaining infinite garden, and you never need to water or fertilize it.
All the delicious calories you need, requiring just a few minutes a day to reap a constant harvest.
It won’t take long to find out who are the talkers and who are the doers. Most younger than 40 will probably be in for a very rude awakening.
I can see that girl, IF she was able to kill a deer (like he said find a suicidal one) just trying to chew a piece off the thing. Probably get bit by a deer tick and it won’t be long then.
Anyway “he doesn’t have the time nor energy to try and educate people anymore “
I sure don’t. Honestly with the shit going down in this country since say 9/11 eh? if people haven’t figured things out by now it’s not happening for them. I got better things to do.
I figure 2/3rds of the people will be dead within a couple months if they’re lucky. The other 1/3rd will be those than can and some these people choose to help make it.
Anyone familiar with the misery index? Went from 7.7 to 11.67 with only a year and a month of the morons/communists back in charge. Gonna be a real bitch over the next 3 years.
https://inflationdata.com/articles/misery-index/
I’m 78. I used to run and lift weights, hunted, grew my own food, learned to fix a car build a house and on and on. Last week I put a 12′ drain pipe 4 inches deep into the ground so my gutter would not drain on the patio. That’s it, nothing more. The ground is even sandy. I did about 75% of the digging and quit for the day. The next day my back and legs were so sore I couldn’t even bend over never mind work. Did I mention I’m 78? Three days later I did about half what was needed to finish it and rested. Two days later I finished, mostly. The point is I can’t do the level of work that will be necessary to survive if the SHTF. I’m gonna die right here in my recliner.
I remember Wes. Hemmis a master of the pen. I have thought about emailing Ken and asking him “why no more Wes stories?” They are great.
This woman will not have any problems when the shtf, with her skills.
https://eatonrapidsjoe.blogspot.com/2022/03/village-girl-repairs.html
not as old as some here, but battered to hell and back yes. if I ever wake up without being in pain, I think I was dead. anyway, back in the mid 1980’s I think it was , sat in on a lecture about EMP at the staff collage at ft. leavenworth.
little bow tie fuck giving the talk. anyway. he said the whole country has at best a 30 day supply of food. that is everything in the fields, stockyards, warehouses and ships in port. everything. the gov’t. figured after 30 to 60 days two thirds of the people will be dead. and the country as the we knew it would be gone.
so. he also said inside of a year, the country would break down into small groups or kingdoms or whatever you wanted to call them where someone was strong enough to do what was needed to get by. he also said the hardest part or time would be the first 6 to 10 months, I guess after that most if not all of the worthless mouths would be dead. after that we might be able to start rebuilding with what was left. he also said it would be a lot like going back to the mid 1800’s with one big problem. we knew what we had before, but do not have all the skills
needed for that time to bring our way of life back. we would have to relearn all the skills of the late1800 and early 1900 to do that.
over half of the officers there figured it be better to get drunk and watch the show rather than fight to get our way of life back. sounds good doesn’t it ?
I figured I rather be the wizard like times of old, got me a lot of old books on how they did things and made or fixed stuff, bunch of old tools I know how to use and some skills that might make it worth whole to keep my old ass around when the time comes. I am not able to work like I once did, but I have and can still teach others how to do a lot of things. one of the many reasons why I moved to where I am now is that it is in the bible belt so to speak. I rather be in a area with a lot of church going folks and not. on the plus side, there are a hell of a lot of vets in this area too. not REMFS either, lots of airborne inf. , marines and more than a few rangers. so it kind of feels like home to me. add that to the fact they we are on the mountain and a good 50 minute drive from any larger town/city is even better.
there are some farmers and stock growers around. and most people get by and leave others alone. not to say we do have a bunch of worthless assholes around, but I figured they be getting taken care when the time comes to it.
we will be seeing how things shake out here sooner rather than later as this is the thing that is going to break us. the dollar will crash as they too stupid to save it. to be honest, these fuckers could fuck up a wet dream.
as I said many times before, stuff is better than money, if it is the right kind of stuff !
Thanks, fellow readers, for saying what needs to be said – most of us Old Fogeys are too beat up or too old to survive. Most of us are prepared, with our eyes wide open and our brains working, but it may not matter in the end. Lord of the Flies, anyone? The kids may or may not survive. Some will. Most won’t
To reiterate what I’ve been saying lately: If Ye Are Not Prepared NOW, Then It’s Too Late. Most you can now do is hunker down and try to live through it somehow.
Better get right with The Lord, you may be meeting Him soon!
I saw a TV series called, “Connections”, very enlightening. Epically the first episode.
Talked about the 1968 black out of the whole east coast because of a relay that kicked in when it was suppose to.
Even got to see the towers in ny before they disappeared one September morn.
Look it up.
Yeah I was a farmer from my 20s to my 40s and thus have a bunch of mediocre skills, but I am now in my 70s and most of those skills are eroded by aging and general wear and tear. I now have a few daily meds that are a requirement, which I can’t replace with nuts and berries.
While I still have a survival mindset and stores of essentials, my ability to survive a Mad Max scenario is poor, just the reality. Back in the day, most didn’t live to the ages they do now because life was a lot harder even for the skilled. I think of modern life as enabling me to live past my normal span.
Heinlein wrote about this 70 years ago. Read Farnham’s Freehold.
Oneguy, Dave in pa and several others are all on the same page. We’re all physically shot need daily meds but have skills and knowledge that would benefit a group. In a former life I was in communication we worked in a hardened building from WWII. Emp was understood in the 40’s sadly by the 70’s no one cared anymore just one high space nuc and we’re back to the 1800’s. The best hope for survival is get to know and be known in the fire/ems realm in the rural area these are volunteers who are motivated by desire to bring help and organization to chaos. Be active in the veterans community as this group has the mentality for organizing under leadership. We old farts can have a significant influence in bringing success to bad situations if we get out of our bunkers now and interact with like minded patriots
I’m 60 and grew up with a dad that homesteading was a way of life. I have a lot of skills. And supplies. Still in decent shape and work as horse veterinary hospital tech and have over 20years experience with that. Got a couple acres in the woods that are planted in edible landscape… Raise a couple goats and Chooks and now have a black baldy heifer orphan I’m raising…. i have dispatched, skinned and gutted more critters than most country boys im sure. But all my like minded friends and family have passed on over the last dozen years and I’ve become a recluse an although I know my (all new) neighbors only one do I feel comfortable with…. Thanks to the internet I have not made enough effort to go farther with meeting new people. So… Time will tell how I get thru what’s coming… And I’m ok with that.
Annie in ocala, welcome and you may find a few like minded and the same capable people old farts like you! Most of us have good basic skills and have experienced similar upbringings. I hope you find your self coming back and chipping in with more comments and anecdotes.